US-based prediction markets taking bets on Australian elections and Albanese’s word choices

US-based “prediction market” websites are taking tens of thousands of dollars in bets on Australian elections and even specific words the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, says in parliament, with gambling harm advocates and the wagering lobby raising alarm.

Australian financial and media regulators said they were monitoring the explosion in popularity of platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which operate financial exchanges where users buy “shares” in contracts on the outcome of events.

While neither site is approved by Australian regulators and do not allow Australian users, experts say sites can be easily accessed with online VPNs.

“We’re concerned about it. I think it will be part of this next wave [of gambling] to hit Australia, which will have a deep impact, and which regulators and policymakers will be way behind on,” said Martin Thomas, the chief executive of the Alliance for Gambling Reform.

Prediction market sites allow users to buy shares in yes/no markets against other users, on events from sports to politics, pop culture or even the weather. Traditional gambling platforms see users place bets against bookmakers but gambling harm advocates say they operate in similar ways.

Kalshi and Polymarket are booming in popularity in the US, offering markets on basketball or football games, tennis matches, or combat sports; but also on events like “when will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?”, “Bitcoin price at the end of 2026”, “Highest temperature in LA on May 21” or “Will Drake’s ‘Iceman’ debut at #1?”

A Kalshi spokesperson said the platform had “no trading” in Australia and its website states trading “is prohibited for residents” of more than 50 countries, including Australia. The Australian Communications and Media Authority (Acma) last year mandated Australian internet service providers block access to Polymarket after it was deemed to be offering “gambling services” without a valid licence.

But both sites host numerous Australian markets on sport, politics, culture and the economy. Polymarket took nearly US$500,000 in trading on the winner of the Farrer byelection, while Kalshi took US$98,572.

Kalshi is hosting markets including “Australia unemployment rate in May”, and has US$16,000 traded on “Who will win the next Australian House election?” and US$8,400 on the Reserve Bank’s cash rate decision in June.

Earlier this month, Kalshi hosted a market on which individual words Albanese would say during parliament’s question time, with US$13,000 traded on contracts regarding whether or not he would say words including “Iran”, “TAFE”, “Trump”, “tax cuts” or “healthcare”, among others.

Polymarket is hosting markets on RBA decisions (US$28,000 on June’s call), or whether Albanese would be “out as prime minister” by June or December (US$12,000 in trading).

“Australians are seeking out these products in large numbers and right now that demand is being met entirely by illegal offshore operators outside Australia’s laws and protections,” said Kai Cantwell, the CEO of Responsible Wagering Australia, the peak body for licensed gambling services.

“In their current form, these platforms create serious integrity risks because the markets can be easily manipulated, particularly when there is little transparency or oversight around how they operate.”

Thomas said the Alliance for Gambling Reform was concerned about whether the government’s looming wagering reforms would adequately address the new trend.

“They’re growing at an enormous rate in the US and it doesn’t take long for such things to come here,” Thomas said.

“They seem to fall into a complete loophole and, for all our efforts to regulate online gambling, this would miss them.”

A government spokesperson said the forthcoming reforms would extend Acma’s powers to block illegal gambling websites, broaden existing bans on advertising and block transactions to prohibited gambling operators.

A spokesperson for Kalshi said the company was committed to operating “in a regulatory-first manner, including Australia” but there were “no current plans” to seek approval to operate here.

Asked about Australian users, the spokesperson said “we have no trading there” and said they were not worried about Australians seeking access to their site.

“We have an entire engineering team that looks at issues like these.”

A spokesperson for the Australian Securities and Investments Commission financial regulator said bets placed on prediction markets were “high-risk and speculative and pose a significant risk to retail investors”, noting no such provider held an Australian market licence.

“Asic continues to observe the rise of prediction markets in the United States and is considering how local financial services laws may apply,” they said.

Acma’s investigation into Polymarket in 2025 included a formal warning sent to the company last July. The regulator said it was monitoring prediction market services but had not undertaken formal investigations into other operators at this stage.

Acma noted Kalshi had geoblocked users in Australia but added: “We are also aware that some people may attempt to circumvent geoblocking by using virtual private networks (VPNs).”

A spokesperson for Polymarket declined to comment.